Forecasting in International Relations

As a discipline matures, prediction becomes one of its standard and routine prac­ tices. The field of international relations is no exception. The growing attention to forecasting within academic research accompanies increasing expectations by the policy community that international relations research should be able to provide early warning of conflict and other human disasters and should therefore actively be engaged in forecasting exercises.1 Many international relations scholars nevertheless continue to see prediction as an inferior task in comparison to explanation and buy into the lamentation that forecasting is impossible.2 Even a pioneer in forecasting